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2024/10/25 / Erste Group Research

How will markets react to Trump?
The US elections will take place on November 5. Kamala Harris of the Democrats is running as the possible successor to the current President Joe Biden, together with Governor Tim Walz, against former Republican President Donald Trump and his follower Senator JD Vance. In addition, elections for Congress, the bicameral legislature, will also take place at the same time. In the Senate, one-third of the 100 senators will be newly elected, while all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be filled.

The last US elections were very close and the two chambers in Congress only have slim majorities. Many US states are clearly divided along political lines. The outcome in the seven so-called battleground states, the states that are particularly hotly contested.

The possible configurations of the presidency, Senate and House of Representatives, which range from a landslide victory to split results, are essential to assessing the impact on different asset classes. According to all the polls, a distribution of power is more likely than a comprehensive victory for either party, which means that the future presidency will have a difficult time fully implementing its agenda, which is peppered with extreme positions.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2024/10/25
Languageen
Product nameSpecial Reports Macro, Fixed Income
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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